The aim of this paper is to examine how new technologies shape the experience of the tourist. This is to further the understanding of tourism’s place in a technologically-driven age. The methodology of the study includes an analysis, comparison and evaluation of elements and factors involved in contributing to a quality tourist experience. The experience of the tourist is a personal and individualistic occurrence and can be improved with the help of both new technologies and the tourist guide. The finding that is made is that both the personal touch of the tourist guide as well as the interactive features of technology have a place in the provision of quality tourism experiences. This in turn implies that both tourist guides and new technologies should be included in the tourism experience. Only then can a quality tourism experience be provided for the 21st century tourist. There are many papers examining the experience of the tourist. However, few have looked at the implications of the development of new technologies on the experience of the tourist. This article suggests a scale on which the tourist experience can be based on, in relation to both tourist guides and new technologies. Show less

The aim of this paper is to examine how new technologies shape the experience of the tourist. This is to further the understanding of tourism’s place in a technologically-driven age. The methodology of the study includes an analysis, comparison and evaluation of elements and factors involved in contributing to a quality Show more

Extant research has established that destination branding through sport events is deemed to be a valuable resource for brand development and positioning, as well as for accessing social, economic and environmental benefits for both developed and developing nations. However, the destination branding discourse remains widely contested among academics and practitioners, as there is, as yet, no commonly accepted framework for the destination branding theory. Moreover, the theory underpinning sport event leveraging towards informed branding practices, especially in the developing destination context, is lacking. The current study conceptualises the leveraging of home-grown sport events for destination brands; extending the scope of other known sport event leveraging studies in the developing context. The research critically examines key stakeholders involved in sport and destination branding by detailing their perceptions in relation to the leveraging of home-grown sport using the South African brand as a case study. Show less

Extant research has established that destination branding through sport events is deemed to be a valuable resource for brand development and positioning, as well as for accessing social, economic and environmental benefits for both developed and developing nations. However, the destination branding discourse remains widely Show more

Coastal and Marine Tourism (CMT), as part of the oceans economy, offers significant development opportunities that can contribute to job creation and sustainability. However, that there are limited national and international best practices to assess the economic impacts of CMT. Furthermore, there are no specific accepted methodological approaches to assess the economic impacts of CMT within a country context. During the 2016/2017 financial year, the National Department of Tourism (NDT) in collaboration with the Cape Peninsula University of Technology (CPUT) initiated a research study to develop a framework to assess the economic impact of coastal and marine tourism (CMT) in South Africa. Phase 1 of the project focused on conducting a desktop study to review relevant literature which provides a national and international perspective to identify best practices and current trends with regard to assessing the economic impacts of CMT in order to inform the development of a framework to assess the economic contribution of CMT to South Africa’s tourism sector. Phase 2 of the study which was undertaken in 2017/18 focused on developing and piloting data collection surveys and examining which economic modelling approaches are appropriate to to assess the economic contribution of CMT to South Africa’s tourism sector. Phase 3 of the study will be undertaken in 2018/19 and will involve implementing the framework and conducting a workshop to capacitate stakeholders. The University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN) took over the project after the completion of Phase 1 given that Prof Urmilla Bob was involved in the project together with Prof Kamilla Swart who was the lead researcher at CPUT and resigned at the end of 2016. Show less

Coastal and Marine Tourism (CMT), as part of the oceans economy, offers significant development opportunities that can contribute to job creation and sustainability. However, that there are limited national and international best practices to assess the economic impacts of CMT. Furthermore, there are no specific accepted Show more

Sustainability has become one of the key elements of development for most tourist destinations. Some cities have adopted a sustainable development strategy as a long-term solution in improving socio-economic, cultural, and environmental practices. Traditionally, destinations have used events to achieve community enrichment, protect the natural environment, and create or maintain national pride. The aim of this research was to analyse the impact of events on sustainable tourism development in Durban. The study analysed the perceptions of key stakeholders regarding the contribution of events to socio-economic growth of the city of Durban. In carrying out the research, a mixed method approach was used. A total of 400 questionnaires were administered and 25 in-depth interviews were conducted. The results show that there are economic spin offs resulting from visitor spending during major events in the City. Furthermore, the study shows that although events can be used as a tool for sustainable tourism development, the challenge is the unbalanced racial structure within the industry, poor state of the economy, and limited access to business start-up capital for SMMEs. The study concludes that events play a vital role in socio-economic growth and development of the tourism sector in Durban and recommends multi-stakeholder collaboration and partnerships to ensure sustained tourism growth. Show less

Sustainability has become one of the key elements of development for most tourist destinations. Some cities have adopted a sustainable development strategy as a long-term solution in improving socio-economic, cultural, and environmental practices. Traditionally, destinations have used events to achieve community enrichment, Show more

The planning, development and management of tourism is a cornerstone for the socio-cultural, economic and natural growth of the tourism industry. In this regard, tourism has come to be known as a major economic force in many countries and regions throughout the world, seeking to increase jobs and thus alleviate unemployment and poverty. It is generally accepted that the growth of tourism depends largely on effective planning, developing and management of resources (facilities and activities), particularly in developing countries so as to escape poverty and inequalities (Wahab, 2000). The major research question in this study is whether there is an adequate legislative framework that effectively addresses issues of planning and development of tourism resources, facilities and activities. What makes some municipalities perform better than others in tourism resource management and development? Are there sufficient planning guidelines that facilitate integrated tourism development approaches? Lastly, what is the role and level of involvement of tourism practitioners and stakeholders in the planning, development and management of tourism resources, facilities and activities. Some other research questions that need to be attended to are as follows: What are the major relationships between national and local policies on tourism resource planning and management?. What levels of tourism planning and management capacity in municipalities need to be identified and improved? What are the existing practitioners and stakeholders‟ perceptions of tourism management and development in the provinces of South Africa? The study is limited to two provinces in South Africa, namely KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape, also covering various district and local municipalities within these regions. Both qualitative and quantitative methodologies are used. The total sample size for municipalities in both provinces is 384 respondents. The details of the methodology are discussed later, laying emphasis on the target Show less

The planning, development and management of tourism is a cornerstone for the socio-cultural, economic and natural growth of the tourism industry. In this regard, tourism has come to be known as a major economic force in many countries and regions throughout the world, seeking to increase jobs and thus alleviate unemployment and Show more

Sustainability has become one of the key elements of development for most tourist destinations. Some cities have adopted a sustainable development strategy as a long-term solution in improving socio-economic, cultural, and environmental practices. Traditionally, destinations have used events to achieve community enrichment, protect the natural environment, and create or maintain national pride. The aim of this research was to analyse the impact of events on sustainable tourism development in Durban. The study analysed the perceptions of key stakeholders regarding the contribution of events to socio-economic growth of the city of Durban. In carrying out the research, a mixed method approach was used. A total of 400 questionnaires were administered and 25 in-depth interviews were conducted. The results show that there are economic spin offs resulting from visitor spending during major events in the City. Furthermore, the study shows that although events can be used as a tool for sustainable tourism development, the challenge is the unbalanced racial structure within the industry, poor state of the economy, and limited access to business start-up capital for SMMEs. The study concludes that events play a vital role in socio-economic growth and development of the tourism sector in Durban and recommends multi-stakeholder collaboration and partnerships to ensure sustained tourism growth. Show less

Sustainability has become one of the key elements of development for most tourist destinations. Some cities have adopted a sustainable development strategy as a long-term solution in improving socio-economic, cultural, and environmental practices. Traditionally, destinations have used events to achieve community enrichment, Show more

This study investigates monetary policy shocks and industrial production in BRICS countries. The study is presented in four separate but related essays. The first (chapter three) employs a Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive model (𝑃−𝑆𝑉𝐴𝑅) to investigate how monetary policy shocks affect industrial output in BRICS countries using monthly data for the period 1994:1 to 2013:12. A nine variable 𝑃−𝑆𝑉𝐴𝑅 with short-run restrictions among the variables is constructed for the analysis. The study finds that variations in the exchange rate have the largest impact on industrial output in the BRICS countries. It is also observed that inflation rates significantly increase industrial output, peaking after about 11 months. This suggests that monetary authorities should be cautious when formulating policies aimed at reducing the inflation rate because of the spill over effect on industrial output. Further analysis reveals that interest rates have a marginal effect on exchange rates, while money supply makes a relatively large contribution to exchange rate fluctuations. Again, it is observed that changes in money supply exert a very large impact on variations in the rate of inflation. Thus, money supply plays an important role in curbing inflation. The study also analyses variations in interest rates, money supply and inflation and recommends that monetary authorities in the BRICS countries adjust interest rates, and not money supply, in response to inflation expectations. The second essay (chapter four) models exchange rate behaviour in the BRICS countries. This study examines global shocks and variations in the BRICS countries local currency/United States dollar exchange rate using the symmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) and Asymmetric Power Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (APARCH) models to determine the relationship between the two. The GARCH, EGARCH and APARCH are employed under normal (Normal Gaussian) and nonnormal (Student‘s t and Generalized Error) distributions. Using monthly exchange rate data covering the period 1994:01–2013:12, the study finds that exchange rates in Brazil, Russia and India can well be modelled by the symmetric GARCH (1,1) model while in China, the three models perform well. In South Africa, the results of the three models also perform well but the EGARCH (1,1) model is found to be the best. Further analyses of the models reveal that the Student‘s t distribution produces better fit for estimating exchange rate variations and global shocks in BRICS countries compared to the Normal Gaussian and GED values under the nonnormal distributions. Overall, the study recommends that the BRICS countries should consider the impact of oil prices and global interest rates when formulating and implementing policies that impact on exchange rates. The third essay (chapter five) examines whether the five BRICS countries share similar business cycles and determines the probability of any of the countries moving from a contractionary regime to an expansionary regime. The study further examines the extent to which changes in monetary policy affect industrial output in expansions relative to contractions. Employing the Peersman and Smets (2001) Markov-Switching Model (MSM) and monthly data from 1994:01 – 2013:12, the study reveals that the five BRICS countries have similar business cycles. The results further demonstrate that the BRICS countries‘ business cycles are characterized by two distinct growth rate phases: a contractionary regime and an expansionary regime. It is observed that area-wide monetary policy has significantly large effects on industrial output in recessions as well as in booms. It is also established that there is a high probability of moving from state 1 (recession) to state 2 (expansion) and that on average, the probabilities of staying in state 2 (expansion) are high for each of the five countries. It is, therefore, recommended that the BRICS countries should sustain uniform policy consistency (monetary policy), especially as they formulate and implement economic policies to stimulate industrial output. The fourth essay (chapter six) investigates the long run and short run dynamics between industrial production and the factors affecting production in the emerging market economies of BRICS countries. Using the Chudik and Pesaran (2013) P-ARDL model and monthly data from 1994:01 – 2013:12, the study finds evidence of a cointegrating relationship between industrial production and selected variables. It is further observed that capital, labour, per capita income and exports have a positive long run impact on industrial production in the BRICS countries. However, a currency appreciation (an increase in the exchange rate) has a negative impact on industrial production. In the short run, it is found that imports, exports, exchange rates, labour, capital and per capita income significantly affect industrial production. The policy implication stemming from the analysis is that a sound economic policy is important for output production and industrialization in BRICS countries while poor policy will result in a nexus of constraintsfrom which escape may be difficult (or impossible). The industrial sector, therefore, should also be listed as a sector that can actualize the diversification process and boost economic performance in the EMEs. There should also be policy consistence in curtailing the declining trend of industrial production. This study investigates monetary policy shocks and industrial production in BRICS countries. The study is presented in four separate but related essays. The first (chapter three) employs a Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive model (𝑃−𝑆𝑉𝐴𝑅) to investigate how monetary policy shocks affect industrial output in BRICS countries using monthly data for the period 1994:1 to 2013:12. A nine variable 𝑃−𝑆𝑉𝐴𝑅 with short-run restrictions among the variables is constructed for the analysis. The study finds that variations in the exchange rate have the largest impact on industrial output in the BRICS countries. It is also observed that inflation rates significantly increase industrial output, peaking after about 11 months. This suggests that monetary authorities should be cautious when formulating policies aimed at reducing the inflation rate because of the spill over effect on industrial output. Further analysis reveals that interest rates have a marginal effect on exchange rates, while money supply makes a relatively large contribution to exchange rate fluctuations. Again, it is observed that changes in money supply exert a very large impact on variations in the rate of inflation. Thus, money supply plays an important role in curbing inflation. The study also analyses variations in interest rates, money supply and inflation and recommends that monetary authorities in the BRICS countries adjust interest rates, and not money supply, in response to inflation expectations. The second essay (chapter four) models exchange rate behaviour in the BRICS countries. This study examines global shocks and variations in the BRICS countries local currency/United States dollar exchange rate using the symmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) and Asymmetric Power Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (APARCH) models to determine the relationship between the two. The GARCH, EGARCH and APARCH are employed under normal (Normal Gaussian) and nonnormal (Student‘s t and Generalized Error) distributions. Using monthly exchange rate data covering the period 1994:01–2013:12, the study finds that exchange rates in Brazil, Russia and India can well be modelled by the symmetric GARCH (1,1) model while in China, the three models perform well. In South Africa, the results of the three models also perform well but the EGARCH (1,1) model is found to be the best. Further analyses of the models reveal that the Student‘s t distribution produces better fit for estimating exchange rate variations and global shocks in BRICS countries compared to the Normal Gaussian and GED values under the nonnormal distributions. Overall, the study recommends that the BRICS countries should consider the impact of oil prices and global interest rates when formulating and implementing policies that impact on exchange rates. The third essay (chapter five) examines whether the five BRICS countries share similar business cycles and determines the probability of any of the countries moving from a contractionary regime to an expansionary regime. The study further examines the extent to which changes in monetary policy affect industrial output in expansions relative to contractions. Employing the Peersman and Smets (2001) Markov-Switching Model (MSM) and monthly data from 1994:01 – 2013:12, the study reveals that the five BRICS countries have similar business cycles. The results further demonstrate that the BRICS countries‘ business cycles are characterized by two distinct growth rate phases: a contractionary regime and an expansionary regime. It is observed that area-wide monetary policy has significantly large effects on industrial output in recessions as well as in booms. It is also established that there is a high probability of moving from state 1 (recession) to state 2 (expansion) and that on average, the probabilities of staying in state 2 (expansion) are high for each of the five countries. It is, therefore, recommended that the BRICS countries should sustain uniform policy consistency (monetary policy), especially as they formulate and implement economic policies to stimulate industrial output. The fourth essay (chapter six) investigates the long run and short run dynamics between industrial production and the factors affecting production in the emerging market economies of BRICS countries. Using the Chudik and Pesaran (2013) P-ARDL model and monthly data from 1994:01 – 2013:12, the study finds evidence of a cointegrating relationship between industrial production and selected variables. It is further observed that capital, labour, per capita income and exports have a positive long run impact on industrial production in the BRICS countries. However, a currency appreciation (an increase in the exchange rate) has a negative impact on industrial production. In the short run, it is found that imports, exports, exchange rates, labour, capital and per capita income significantly affect industrial production. The policy implication stemming from the analysis is that a sound economic policy is important for output production and industrialization in BRICS countries while poor policy will result in a nexus of constraintsfrom which escape may be difficult (or impossible). The industrial sector, therefore, should also be listed as a sector that can actualize the diversification process and boost economic performance in the EMEs. There should also be policy consistence in curtailing the declining trend of industrial production. This study investigates monetary policy shocks and industrial production in BRICS countries. The study is presented in four separate but related essays. The first (chapter three) employs a Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive model (𝑃−𝑆𝑉𝐴𝑅) to investigate how monetary policy shocks affect industrial output in BRICS countries using monthly data for the period 1994:1 to 2013:12. A nine variable 𝑃−𝑆𝑉𝐴𝑅 with short-run restrictions among the variables is constructed for the analysis. The study finds that variations in the exchange rate have the largest impact on industrial output in the BRICS countries. It is also observed that inflation rates significantly increase industrial output, peaking after about 11 months. This suggests that monetary authorities should be cautious when formulating policies aimed at reducing the inflation rate because of the spill over effect on industrial output. Further analysis reveals that interest rates have a marginal effect on exchange rates, while money supply makes a relatively large contribution to exchange rate fluctuations. Again, it is observed that changes in money supply exert a very large impact on variations in the rate of inflation. Thus, money supply plays an important role in curbing inflation. The study also analyses variations in interest rates, money supply and inflation and recommends that monetary authorities in the BRICS countries adjust interest rates, and not money supply, in response to inflation expectations. The second essay (chapter four) models exchange rate behaviour in the BRICS countries. This study examines global shocks and variations in the BRICS countries local currency/United States dollar exchange rate using the symmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) and Asymmetric Power Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (APARCH) models to determine the relationship between the two. The GARCH, EGARCH and APARCH are employed under normal (Normal Gaussian) and nonnormal (Student‘s t and Generalized Error) distributions. Using monthly exchange rate data covering the period 1994:01–2013:12, the study finds that exchange rates in Brazil, Russia and India can well be modelled by the symmetric GARCH (1,1) model while in China, the three models perform well. In South Africa, the results of the three models also perform well but the EGARCH (1,1) model is found to be the best. Further analyses of the models reveal that the Student‘s t distribution produces better fit for estimating exchange rate variations and global shocks in BRICS countries compared to the Normal Gaussian and GED values under the nonnormal distributions. Overall, the study recommends that the BRICS countries should consider the impact of oil prices and global interest rates when formulating and implementing policies that impact on exchange rates. The third essay (chapter five) examines whether the five BRICS countries share similar business cycles and determines the probability of any of the countries moving from a contractionary regime to an expansionary regime. The study further examines the extent to which changes in monetary policy affect industrial output in expansions relative to contractions. Employing the Peersman and Smets (2001) Markov-Switching Model (MSM) and monthly data from 1994:01 – 2013:12, the study reveals that the five BRICS countries have similar business cycles. The results further demonstrate that the BRICS countries‘ business cycles are characterized by two distinct growth rate phases: a contractionary regime and an expansionary regime. It is observed that area-wide monetary policy has significantly large effects on industrial output in recessions as well as in booms. It is also established that there is a high probability of moving from state 1 (recession) to state 2 (expansion) and that on average, the probabilities of staying in state 2 (expansion) are high for each of the five countries. It is, therefore, recommended that the BRICS countries should sustain uniform policy consistency (monetary policy), especially as they formulate and implement economic policies to stimulate industrial output. The fourth essay (chapter six) investigates the long run and short run dynamics between industrial production and the factors affecting production in the emerging market economies of BRICS countries. Using the Chudik and Pesaran (2013) P-ARDL model and monthly data from 1994:01 – 2013:12, the study finds evidence of a cointegrating relationship between industrial production and selected variables. It is further observed that capital, labour, per capita income and exports have a positive long run impact on industrial production in the BRICS countries. However, a currency appreciation (an increase in the exchange rate) has a negative impact on industrial production. In the short run, it is found that imports, exports, exchange rates, labour, capital and per capita income significantly affect industrial production. The policy implication stemming from the analysis is that a sound economic policy is important for output production and industrialization in BRICS countries while poor policy will result in a nexus of constraintsfrom which escape may be difficult (or impossible). The industrial sector, therefore, should also be listed as a sector that can actualize the diversification process and boost economic performance in the EMEs. There should also be policy consistence in curtailing the declining trend of industrial production. Show less

This study investigates monetary policy shocks and industrial production in BRICS countries. The study is presented in four separate but related essays. The first (chapter three) employs a Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive model (𝑃−𝑆𝑉𝐴𝑅) to investigate how monetary policy shocks affect industrial output Show more

Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (B-BBEE) policy in South Africa aims to accelerate the inclusion of black people into the economy through company ownership, human resources, and enterprise and community development. Statistics South Africa (Stats SA, 2012) indicate that 91 per cent of South Africa’s 52 million people is comprised of black people. Persons of black African origin comprise 79 per cent of the population, 9 per cent are Coloured, and 2.5 per cent are of Asian origin. Yet economic wealth is held by a white population representing 9 per cent of the population. Therefore, government insists that the pace of transformation, and implementation of B-BBEE policy in the private sector, including the tourism sector, is slow and needs addressing. The tourism sector, one of the largest and fastest growing industries in the world, was identified as a priority sector for economic development and implementation of B-BBEE policy in South Africa. In line with global conventions, the Amended Tourism B-BBEE code (2013) groups’ components of the tourism value chain into three main sub-sectors. These sub-sectors are firstly Accommodation, then Hospitality and Related Services; and thirdly, Travel and Related Services. Show less

Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (B-BBEE) policy in South Africa aims to accelerate the inclusion of black people into the economy through company ownership, human resources, and enterprise and community development. Statistics South Africa (Stats SA, 2012) indicate that 91 per cent of South Africa’s 52 million people Show more

. The oceans economy offers significant development opportunities for sectors such as sustainable fisheries and aquaculture, renewable marine energy, marine bio-prospecting, maritime transport and marine and coastal tourism as indicated by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNCTAD. Marine and coastal tourism has great potential to unlock sustainable socio-economic development, generate multifarious benefits for local communities and the nation, and simultaneously contribute to protecting and conserving biodiversity of marine and coastal environments in South Africa and developing countries more generally. The theoretical framework for this study is based on the New Public Governance theory, which is premised on the acknowledgement that apart from the government, various public and private institutions can be centres of power on different levels, as long as their authority of power is recognized by the public. To explore such multiple centres of power, Stakeholder theory is used. Lastly, the study is theoretically and conceptually informed by the use of Common property resource theory. The information derived from the literature and policy review as well as primary data collection will be analysed thematically according to key themes, notably the opportunities and challenges of governance and coordination of coastal and marine tourism; the level of accessibility, transparency and effectiveness in coastal and marine tourism; how marine and coastal tourism could be sustainably governed and coordinated at national, provincial and local levels; level of engagement of key public and private stakeholder bodies whose policies and actions impact on coastal and marine tourism development; implementation of national policies and governance processes at the local level; and the effectiveness of local governance capacity and community engagement structures. The methodology for this research firstly involves conducting a desk-top study to examine relevant literature as well as to identify international best practices and national and sector specific (cruise tourism, beach tourism and events, adventure tourism, accommodation and facilities, etc.) trends in the South African context. This is followed by a critical policy review and primary data collection based on a case study approach. Personal and telephonic semi-structured interviews will be undertaken with purposively sampled key informants, who hold positions in the community, government and tourism business. In addition, a structured questionnaire survey will be used to gain responses from randomly sampled tourism businesses (focusing on direct users of marine and coastal tourism). The research was screened by the UKZN Research Ethics Committee in terms of the university research ethics code. All relevant ethical measures were put in place for the purpose of the research and protecting the participants. The findings of the study identify certain key blockages and challenges in the current policy implementation processes and governance structures. They include issues of coordination, communication, and consultation. Although there is tourism legislation that reflects local roles and responsibilities of stakeholders, the current legislation needs to be enhanced to ensure that certain regulations do not hold back costal and marine tourism development. Show less

. The oceans economy offers significant development opportunities for sectors such as sustainable fisheries and aquaculture, renewable marine energy, marine bio-prospecting, maritime transport and marine and coastal tourism as indicated by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNCTAD. Marine and coastal tourism Show more

This study investigates monetary policy shocks and industrial production in BRICS countries. The study is presented in four separate but related essays. The first (chapter three) employs a Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive model (𝑃−𝑆𝑉𝐴𝑅) to investigate how monetary policy shocks affect industrial output in BRICS countries using monthly data for the period 1994:1 to 2013:12. A nine variable 𝑃−𝑆𝑉𝐴𝑅 with short-run restrictions among the variables is constructed for the analysis. The study finds that variations in the exchange rate have the largest impact on industrial output in the BRICS countries. It is also observed that inflation rates significantly increase industrial output, peaking after about 11 months. This suggests that monetary authorities should be cautious when formulating policies aimed at reducing the inflation rate because of the spill over effect on industrial output. Further analysis reveals that interest rates have a marginal effect on exchange rates, while money supply makes a relatively large contribution to exchange rate fluctuations. Again, it is observed that changes in money supply exert a very large impact on variations in the rate of inflation. Thus, money supply plays an important role in curbing inflation. The study also analyses variations in interest rates, money supply and inflation and recommends that monetary authorities in the BRICS countries adjust interest rates, and not money supply, in response to inflation expectations. The second essay (chapter four) models exchange rate behaviour in the BRICS countries. This study examines global shocks and variations in the BRICS countries local currency/United States dollar exchange rate using the symmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) and Asymmetric Power Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (APARCH) models to determine the relationship between the two. The GARCH, EGARCH and APARCH are employed under normal (Normal Gaussian) and nonnormal (Student‘s t and Generalized Error) distributions. Using monthly exchange rate data covering the period 1994:01–2013:12, the study finds that exchange rates in Brazil, Russia and India can well be modelled by the symmetric GARCH (1,1) model while in China, the three models perform well. In South Africa, the results of the three models also perform well but the EGARCH (1,1) model is found to be the best. Further analyses of the models reveal that the Student‘s t distribution produces better fit for estimating exchange rate variations and global shocks in BRICS countries compared to the Normal Gaussian and GED values under the nonnormal distributions. Overall, the study recommends that the BRICS countries should consider the impact of oil prices and global interest rates when formulating and implementing policies that impact on exchange rates. The third essay (chapter five) examines whether the five BRICS countries share similar business cycles and determines the probability of any of the countries moving from a contractionary regime to an expansionary regime. The study further examines the extent to which changes in monetary policy affect industrial output in expansions relative to contractions. Employing the Peersman and Smets (2001) Markov-Switching Model (MSM) and monthly data from 1994:01 – 2013:12, the study reveals that the five BRICS countries have similar business cycles. The results further demonstrate that the BRICS countries‘ business cycles are characterized by two distinct growth rate phases: a contractionary regime and an expansionary regime. It is observed that area-wide monetary policy has significantly large effects on industrial output in recessions as well as in booms. It is also established that there is a high probability of moving from state 1 (recession) to state 2 (expansion) and that on average, the probabilities of staying in state 2 (expansion) are high for each of the five countries. It is, therefore, recommended that the BRICS countries should sustain uniform policy consistency (monetary policy), especially as they formulate and implement economic policies to stimulate industrial output. The fourth essay (chapter six) investigates the long run and short run dynamics between industrial production and the factors affecting production in the emerging market economies of BRICS countries. Using the Chudik and Pesaran (2013) P-ARDL model and monthly data from 1994:01 – 2013:12, the study finds evidence of a cointegrating relationship between industrial production and selected variables. It is further observed that capital, labour, per capita income and exports have a positive long run impact on industrial production in the BRICS countries. However, a currency appreciation (an increase in the exchange rate) has a negative impact on industrial production. In the short run, it is found that imports, exports, exchange rates, labour, capital and per capita income significantly affect industrial production. The policy implication stemming from the analysis is that a sound economic policy is important for output production and industrialization in BRICS countries while poor policy will result in a nexus of constraintsfrom which escape may be difficult (or impossible). The industrial sector, therefore, should also be listed as a sector that can actualize the diversification process and boost economic performance in the EMEs. There should also be policy consistence in curtailing the declining trend of industrial production. Show less

This study investigates monetary policy shocks and industrial production in BRICS countries. The study is presented in four separate but related essays. The first (chapter three) employs a Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive model (𝑃−𝑆𝑉𝐴𝑅) to investigate how monetary policy shocks affect industrial output Show more