Tourist guides are at the epi-centre of the tourism industry, they are integral and indispensable, but are dependent on a multi-layered number of entities that have both direct and indirect impacts on their role and place. Given the vastness and multivariate nature of the tourist guiding sector this research needed to prioritise and thus focused on the legislative and regulatory dimension, the training and accreditation authorities as well as issues of associations and professionalisation. The South African tourist guiding sector boasts an advanced regulated tourism sub-sector which pre-dates and surpasses many in the global North and South. The government is aware of the potential of tourism and it ranks it as a priority sector within the economy. However, the current legislation, training, professionalisation and the position of Department of Tourism is hampered by other extraneous regulations, structures and processes which at some levels amount to “over” regulation and “under” performance. This research appraises these aspects making recommendations as to how the Department needs to be repositioned at the helm of the tourism industry while training and accreditation as well as the professionalisation and associations, related to the tourist guide, need to be streamlined and again centred within its jurisdiction. Show less

Tourist guides are at the epi-centre of the tourism industry, they are integral and indispensable, but are dependent on a multi-layered number of entities that have both direct and indirect impacts on their role and place. Given the vastness and multivariate nature of the tourist guiding sector this research needed to Show more

Coastal and Marine Tourism (CMT), as part of the oceans economy, offers significant development opportunities that can contribute to job creation and sustainability. However, a desktop study funded by the National Department of Tourism (NDT) revealed that there are limited national and international best practices to assess the economic impacts of CMT. It was evident from the desktop study that there were no specific accepted methodological approaches to assess the economic impacts of CMT within a country context. The extension of this component of the research entails piloting a framework (including the identification of key economic indicators, development of data collection tools and identification of appropriate economic models) to inform the development of a framework to assess CMT’s contribution to South Africa’s tourism sector. This presentation provides an overview of the piloting processes undertaken and reflects on the challenges and opportunities to assess the economic impacts of CMT. The methodological approach adopted was the implementation of stakeholder survey-based data collection tools. The key stakeholders identified were coastal and marine tourists/ users/ customers and CMT business (including the accommodation sector, CMT business owners, retail outlets and tour operators). The challenges in terms of data collection included ensuring a geographical and representative spread across all four coastal provinces, willingness to participate, quality of data collected (especially in relation to self-completion surveys) and the length of the surveys. Access to stakeholder contact details also emerged as a challenge. Finally, key recommendations in terms of developing the framework will be shared based on the piloting undertaken. For example, the piloting also revealed the need to revise some of the questions and rethink the number and types of stakeholders from whom primary data needs to be sourced. The importance of developing a standardised framework to measure, monitor and manage the economic impacts of CMT in South Africa remains. This research will inform the development of a framework for CMT. Show less

Coastal and Marine Tourism (CMT), as part of the oceans economy, offers significant development opportunities that can contribute to job creation and sustainability. However, a desktop study funded by the National Department of Tourism (NDT) revealed that there are limited national and international best practices to assess the Show more

The overall aim of the study was to develop a market analysis framework that can be used by different tourism stakeholders to inform product development, infrastructure development and investment facilitation, with particular reference to the local level. Market analysis is critical in attracting tourism investment as investors are likely to put their money where both demand and supply analysis has been conducted in order to get return on their investment. The market analysis framework consists of a sequential iterative process with seven (7) steps. Each step represents the main components and sub-components for determining the market feasibility of a tourism project. A Workbook was developed to provide guidelines for a funding applicant to effectively structure the information and data on the market analysis in a funding application as well as to provide the funding body with an effective tool for evaluation of the funding application in terms of the market analysis. Information and data was gathered using ‘diagnostic’ tools, the purpose of which is to collect as much relevant data as possible. Information relevant to the project was written up in the Workbook. The diagnostic tools were designed to ‘flag’ potential challenges which could either lead to project dismissal or adjustments/interventions to overcome challenges that have been identified. Data was gathered via secondary and primary sources. Information gathered must be interpreted and condensed into the required format for a project proposal. Show less

The overall aim of the study was to develop a market analysis framework that can be used by different tourism stakeholders to inform product development, infrastructure development and investment facilitation, with particular reference to the local level. Market analysis is critical in attracting tourism investment as investors Show more

The report highlights literature and other extant credible sources to identify and profile rural tourism products (RTPs) in South Africa in the context of sustainability to support the National Department of Tourism’s (NDT) 2012 strategy, outcome seven, on sustainable rural communities, with a strong emphasis on supporting rural tourism. Building from the assumption that sustainable RTPs lead to sustainable rural communities, an RTP sustainability framework is therefore at the core of the report. The report is not prescriptive in terms of the sustainable indicators that should be adopted, but rather, given the complexity and diversity of issues surrounding rural tourism, it provides a framework that acts as a base for RTPs to assess their sustainability. The report first provides a conceptual overview of rural tourism and its products, activities and/or services and the methodological framework used to arrive at key findings. Rural tourism may not necessarily be confined in a non-urban milieu. A ‘country experience’ which encompasses a wide range of attractions and activities that take place in a cultural, agricultural or natural resource setting, may take place in an urban area, or in its outskirts thereof. This finding demonstrates the possibility of rural tourism transcending the rural-urban divide. However, for the purposes of this study, the rural-urban locational divide is important because the NDT’s strategy specifically aims to develop rural communities – defined as non-urban, former homeland and/or sparsely populated areas – via tourism. It is not appropriate to be prescriptive regarding the specific indicators that should be adopted because RTPs are highly heterogeneous and the context they operate in differs. However, the report provides the key principles, criteria and indicators to consider if an RTP’s sustainability is to be assessed by the owners, to an extent that is institutionally feasible. In developing the framework, the indicators were aligned with policy documents of South Africa to improve the relevance and adequacy of the indicators. A few RTP cases were selected and empirically applied to test the developed sustainability framework. While the framework can typically be applied, the challenges underlying the development of a coherent, harmonised and comparable set of RTP indicators in all categorisations is acknowledged. Show less

The report highlights literature and other extant credible sources to identify and profile rural tourism products (RTPs) in South Africa in the context of sustainability to support the National Department of Tourism’s (NDT) 2012 strategy, outcome seven, on sustainable rural communities, with a strong emphasis on supporting Show more

iSimangaliso Wetland Park is a unique site with international significance as a Heritage site. It contains pristine beauty and offers visitors a variety of experiences. The diversity of landscapes makes it appealing to different visitor types, from adventure seekers to family holiday goers and nature lovers. It has the potential to be a world class experience. Elements from the site observation were not conducive to the image of iSimangaliso as a tourist attraction. With some areas branding is visible, but in others not, to the extent that tourists do not always know that they are in a unique Heritage site. Confusion is created when moving through the different entry gates for iSimangaliso versus KZN Wildlife, with fees differing, separate permits having to be obtained. The quality of infrastructure and service delivery also differs across the different sections of the Park; being old and rundown in some areas, while modern and new in others. There is a clear difference between properties managed by iSimangaliso versus KZN Wildlife. This can impede on visitors’ image and perceptions about the Park as a holistic, well run attraction. Show less

iSimangaliso Wetland Park is a unique site with international significance as a Heritage site. It contains pristine beauty and offers visitors a variety of experiences. The diversity of landscapes makes it appealing to different visitor types, from adventure seekers to family holiday goers and nature lovers. It has the Show more

. The oceans economy offers significant development opportunities for sectors such as sustainable fisheries and aquaculture, renewable marine energy, marine bio-prospecting, maritime transport and marine and coastal tourism as indicated by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNCTAD. Marine and coastal tourism has great potential to unlock sustainable socio-economic development, generate multifarious benefits for local communities and the nation, and simultaneously contribute to protecting and conserving biodiversity of marine and coastal environments in South Africa and developing countries more generally. The theoretical framework for this study is based on the New Public Governance theory, which is premised on the acknowledgement that apart from the government, various public and private institutions can be centres of power on different levels, as long as their authority of power is recognized by the public. To explore such multiple centres of power, Stakeholder theory is used. Lastly, the study is theoretically and conceptually informed by the use of Common property resource theory. The information derived from the literature and policy review as well as primary data collection will be analysed thematically according to key themes, notably the opportunities and challenges of governance and coordination of coastal and marine tourism; the level of accessibility, transparency and effectiveness in coastal and marine tourism; how marine and coastal tourism could be sustainably governed and coordinated at national, provincial and local levels; level of engagement of key public and private stakeholder bodies whose policies and actions impact on coastal and marine tourism development; implementation of national policies and governance processes at the local level; and the effectiveness of local governance capacity and community engagement structures. The methodology for this research firstly involves conducting a desk-top study to examine relevant literature as well as to identify international best practices and national and sector specific (cruise tourism, beach tourism and events, adventure tourism, accommodation and facilities, etc.) trends in the South African context. This is followed by a critical policy review and primary data collection based on a case study approach. Personal and telephonic semi-structured interviews will be undertaken with purposively sampled key informants, who hold positions in the community, government and tourism business. In addition, a structured questionnaire survey will be used to gain responses from randomly sampled tourism businesses (focusing on direct users of marine and coastal tourism). The research was screened by the UKZN Research Ethics Committee in terms of the university research ethics code. All relevant ethical measures were put in place for the purpose of the research and protecting the participants. The findings of the study identify certain key blockages and challenges in the current policy implementation processes and governance structures. They include issues of coordination, communication, and consultation. Although there is tourism legislation that reflects local roles and responsibilities of stakeholders, the current legislation needs to be enhanced to ensure that certain regulations do not hold back costal and marine tourism development. Show less

. The oceans economy offers significant development opportunities for sectors such as sustainable fisheries and aquaculture, renewable marine energy, marine bio-prospecting, maritime transport and marine and coastal tourism as indicated by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNCTAD. Marine and coastal tourism Show more

The concept ‘cultural industries’ refers to a wide variety of cultural activities that are often commercialised. In recent years, an increasing number of exceedingly beneficial linkages have been developing between the cultural industries and the tourism industry. Film tourism is one of the most successful examples of these linkages, and in the context of this study, the film industry as a significant sector within the creative industries will be focused on. Film tourism has in the past few decades become a burgeoning sector in the tourism industry. In fact, it is estimated that the film industry contributes £6 billion a year to the United Kingdom’s (UK) economy when one factors in spin-off benefits such as tourism. Show less

The concept ‘cultural industries’ refers to a wide variety of cultural activities that are often commercialised. In recent years, an increasing number of exceedingly beneficial linkages have been developing between the cultural industries and the tourism industry. Film tourism is one of the most successful examples of these Show more

This study investigates monetary policy shocks and industrial production in BRICS countries. The study is presented in four separate but related essays. The first (chapter three) employs a Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive model (𝑃−𝑆𝑉𝐴𝑅) to investigate how monetary policy shocks affect industrial output in BRICS countries using monthly data for the period 1994:1 to 2013:12. A nine variable 𝑃−𝑆𝑉𝐴𝑅 with short-run restrictions among the variables is constructed for the analysis. The study finds that variations in the exchange rate have the largest impact on industrial output in the BRICS countries. It is also observed that inflation rates significantly increase industrial output, peaking after about 11 months. This suggests that monetary authorities should be cautious when formulating policies aimed at reducing the inflation rate because of the spill over effect on industrial output. Further analysis reveals that interest rates have a marginal effect on exchange rates, while money supply makes a relatively large contribution to exchange rate fluctuations. Again, it is observed that changes in money supply exert a very large impact on variations in the rate of inflation. Thus, money supply plays an important role in curbing inflation. The study also analyses variations in interest rates, money supply and inflation and recommends that monetary authorities in the BRICS countries adjust interest rates, and not money supply, in response to inflation expectations. The second essay (chapter four) models exchange rate behaviour in the BRICS countries. This study examines global shocks and variations in the BRICS countries local currency/United States dollar exchange rate using the symmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) and Asymmetric Power Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (APARCH) models to determine the relationship between the two. The GARCH, EGARCH and APARCH are employed under normal (Normal Gaussian) and nonnormal (Student‘s t and Generalized Error) distributions. Using monthly exchange rate data covering the period 1994:01–2013:12, the study finds that exchange rates in Brazil, Russia and India can well be modelled by the symmetric GARCH (1,1) model while in China, the three models perform well. In South Africa, the results of the three models also perform well but the EGARCH (1,1) model is found to be the best. Further analyses of the models reveal that the Student‘s t distribution produces better fit for estimating exchange rate variations and global shocks in BRICS countries compared to the Normal Gaussian and GED values under the nonnormal distributions. Overall, the study recommends that the BRICS countries should consider the impact of oil prices and global interest rates when formulating and implementing policies that impact on exchange rates. The third essay (chapter five) examines whether the five BRICS countries share similar business cycles and determines the probability of any of the countries moving from a contractionary regime to an expansionary regime. The study further examines the extent to which changes in monetary policy affect industrial output in expansions relative to contractions. Employing the Peersman and Smets (2001) Markov-Switching Model (MSM) and monthly data from 1994:01 – 2013:12, the study reveals that the five BRICS countries have similar business cycles. The results further demonstrate that the BRICS countries‘ business cycles are characterized by two distinct growth rate phases: a contractionary regime and an expansionary regime. It is observed that area-wide monetary policy has significantly large effects on industrial output in recessions as well as in booms. It is also established that there is a high probability of moving from state 1 (recession) to state 2 (expansion) and that on average, the probabilities of staying in state 2 (expansion) are high for each of the five countries. It is, therefore, recommended that the BRICS countries should sustain uniform policy consistency (monetary policy), especially as they formulate and implement economic policies to stimulate industrial output. The fourth essay (chapter six) investigates the long run and short run dynamics between industrial production and the factors affecting production in the emerging market economies of BRICS countries. Using the Chudik and Pesaran (2013) P-ARDL model and monthly data from 1994:01 – 2013:12, the study finds evidence of a cointegrating relationship between industrial production and selected variables. It is further observed that capital, labour, per capita income and exports have a positive long run impact on industrial production in the BRICS countries. However, a currency appreciation (an increase in the exchange rate) has a negative impact on industrial production. In the short run, it is found that imports, exports, exchange rates, labour, capital and per capita income significantly affect industrial production. The policy implication stemming from the analysis is that a sound economic policy is important for output production and industrialization in BRICS countries while poor policy will result in a nexus of constraintsfrom which escape may be difficult (or impossible). The industrial sector, therefore, should also be listed as a sector that can actualize the diversification process and boost economic performance in the EMEs. There should also be policy consistence in curtailing the declining trend of industrial production. This study investigates monetary policy shocks and industrial production in BRICS countries. The study is presented in four separate but related essays. The first (chapter three) employs a Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive model (𝑃−𝑆𝑉𝐴𝑅) to investigate how monetary policy shocks affect industrial output in BRICS countries using monthly data for the period 1994:1 to 2013:12. A nine variable 𝑃−𝑆𝑉𝐴𝑅 with short-run restrictions among the variables is constructed for the analysis. The study finds that variations in the exchange rate have the largest impact on industrial output in the BRICS countries. It is also observed that inflation rates significantly increase industrial output, peaking after about 11 months. This suggests that monetary authorities should be cautious when formulating policies aimed at reducing the inflation rate because of the spill over effect on industrial output. Further analysis reveals that interest rates have a marginal effect on exchange rates, while money supply makes a relatively large contribution to exchange rate fluctuations. Again, it is observed that changes in money supply exert a very large impact on variations in the rate of inflation. Thus, money supply plays an important role in curbing inflation. The study also analyses variations in interest rates, money supply and inflation and recommends that monetary authorities in the BRICS countries adjust interest rates, and not money supply, in response to inflation expectations. The second essay (chapter four) models exchange rate behaviour in the BRICS countries. This study examines global shocks and variations in the BRICS countries local currency/United States dollar exchange rate using the symmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) and Asymmetric Power Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (APARCH) models to determine the relationship between the two. The GARCH, EGARCH and APARCH are employed under normal (Normal Gaussian) and nonnormal (Student‘s t and Generalized Error) distributions. Using monthly exchange rate data covering the period 1994:01–2013:12, the study finds that exchange rates in Brazil, Russia and India can well be modelled by the symmetric GARCH (1,1) model while in China, the three models perform well. In South Africa, the results of the three models also perform well but the EGARCH (1,1) model is found to be the best. Further analyses of the models reveal that the Student‘s t distribution produces better fit for estimating exchange rate variations and global shocks in BRICS countries compared to the Normal Gaussian and GED values under the nonnormal distributions. Overall, the study recommends that the BRICS countries should consider the impact of oil prices and global interest rates when formulating and implementing policies that impact on exchange rates. The third essay (chapter five) examines whether the five BRICS countries share similar business cycles and determines the probability of any of the countries moving from a contractionary regime to an expansionary regime. The study further examines the extent to which changes in monetary policy affect industrial output in expansions relative to contractions. Employing the Peersman and Smets (2001) Markov-Switching Model (MSM) and monthly data from 1994:01 – 2013:12, the study reveals that the five BRICS countries have similar business cycles. The results further demonstrate that the BRICS countries‘ business cycles are characterized by two distinct growth rate phases: a contractionary regime and an expansionary regime. It is observed that area-wide monetary policy has significantly large effects on industrial output in recessions as well as in booms. It is also established that there is a high probability of moving from state 1 (recession) to state 2 (expansion) and that on average, the probabilities of staying in state 2 (expansion) are high for each of the five countries. It is, therefore, recommended that the BRICS countries should sustain uniform policy consistency (monetary policy), especially as they formulate and implement economic policies to stimulate industrial output. The fourth essay (chapter six) investigates the long run and short run dynamics between industrial production and the factors affecting production in the emerging market economies of BRICS countries. Using the Chudik and Pesaran (2013) P-ARDL model and monthly data from 1994:01 – 2013:12, the study finds evidence of a cointegrating relationship between industrial production and selected variables. It is further observed that capital, labour, per capita income and exports have a positive long run impact on industrial production in the BRICS countries. However, a currency appreciation (an increase in the exchange rate) has a negative impact on industrial production. In the short run, it is found that imports, exports, exchange rates, labour, capital and per capita income significantly affect industrial production. The policy implication stemming from the analysis is that a sound economic policy is important for output production and industrialization in BRICS countries while poor policy will result in a nexus of constraintsfrom which escape may be difficult (or impossible). The industrial sector, therefore, should also be listed as a sector that can actualize the diversification process and boost economic performance in the EMEs. There should also be policy consistence in curtailing the declining trend of industrial production. This study investigates monetary policy shocks and industrial production in BRICS countries. The study is presented in four separate but related essays. The first (chapter three) employs a Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive model (𝑃−𝑆𝑉𝐴𝑅) to investigate how monetary policy shocks affect industrial output in BRICS countries using monthly data for the period 1994:1 to 2013:12. A nine variable 𝑃−𝑆𝑉𝐴𝑅 with short-run restrictions among the variables is constructed for the analysis. The study finds that variations in the exchange rate have the largest impact on industrial output in the BRICS countries. It is also observed that inflation rates significantly increase industrial output, peaking after about 11 months. This suggests that monetary authorities should be cautious when formulating policies aimed at reducing the inflation rate because of the spill over effect on industrial output. Further analysis reveals that interest rates have a marginal effect on exchange rates, while money supply makes a relatively large contribution to exchange rate fluctuations. Again, it is observed that changes in money supply exert a very large impact on variations in the rate of inflation. Thus, money supply plays an important role in curbing inflation. The study also analyses variations in interest rates, money supply and inflation and recommends that monetary authorities in the BRICS countries adjust interest rates, and not money supply, in response to inflation expectations. The second essay (chapter four) models exchange rate behaviour in the BRICS countries. This study examines global shocks and variations in the BRICS countries local currency/United States dollar exchange rate using the symmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) and Asymmetric Power Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (APARCH) models to determine the relationship between the two. The GARCH, EGARCH and APARCH are employed under normal (Normal Gaussian) and nonnormal (Student‘s t and Generalized Error) distributions. Using monthly exchange rate data covering the period 1994:01–2013:12, the study finds that exchange rates in Brazil, Russia and India can well be modelled by the symmetric GARCH (1,1) model while in China, the three models perform well. In South Africa, the results of the three models also perform well but the EGARCH (1,1) model is found to be the best. Further analyses of the models reveal that the Student‘s t distribution produces better fit for estimating exchange rate variations and global shocks in BRICS countries compared to the Normal Gaussian and GED values under the nonnormal distributions. Overall, the study recommends that the BRICS countries should consider the impact of oil prices and global interest rates when formulating and implementing policies that impact on exchange rates. The third essay (chapter five) examines whether the five BRICS countries share similar business cycles and determines the probability of any of the countries moving from a contractionary regime to an expansionary regime. The study further examines the extent to which changes in monetary policy affect industrial output in expansions relative to contractions. Employing the Peersman and Smets (2001) Markov-Switching Model (MSM) and monthly data from 1994:01 – 2013:12, the study reveals that the five BRICS countries have similar business cycles. The results further demonstrate that the BRICS countries‘ business cycles are characterized by two distinct growth rate phases: a contractionary regime and an expansionary regime. It is observed that area-wide monetary policy has significantly large effects on industrial output in recessions as well as in booms. It is also established that there is a high probability of moving from state 1 (recession) to state 2 (expansion) and that on average, the probabilities of staying in state 2 (expansion) are high for each of the five countries. It is, therefore, recommended that the BRICS countries should sustain uniform policy consistency (monetary policy), especially as they formulate and implement economic policies to stimulate industrial output. The fourth essay (chapter six) investigates the long run and short run dynamics between industrial production and the factors affecting production in the emerging market economies of BRICS countries. Using the Chudik and Pesaran (2013) P-ARDL model and monthly data from 1994:01 – 2013:12, the study finds evidence of a cointegrating relationship between industrial production and selected variables. It is further observed that capital, labour, per capita income and exports have a positive long run impact on industrial production in the BRICS countries. However, a currency appreciation (an increase in the exchange rate) has a negative impact on industrial production. In the short run, it is found that imports, exports, exchange rates, labour, capital and per capita income significantly affect industrial production. The policy implication stemming from the analysis is that a sound economic policy is important for output production and industrialization in BRICS countries while poor policy will result in a nexus of constraintsfrom which escape may be difficult (or impossible). The industrial sector, therefore, should also be listed as a sector that can actualize the diversification process and boost economic performance in the EMEs. There should also be policy consistence in curtailing the declining trend of industrial production. Show less

This study investigates monetary policy shocks and industrial production in BRICS countries. The study is presented in four separate but related essays. The first (chapter three) employs a Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive model (𝑃−𝑆𝑉𝐴𝑅) to investigate how monetary policy shocks affect industrial output Show more

Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (B-BBEE) policy in South Africa aims to accelerate the inclusion of black people into the economy through company ownership, human resources, and enterprise and community development. Statistics South Africa (Stats SA, 2012) indicate that 91 per cent of South Africa’s 52 million people is comprised of black people. Persons of black African origin comprise 79 per cent of the population, 9 per cent are Coloured, and 2.5 per cent are of Asian origin. Yet economic wealth is held by a white population representing 9 per cent of the population. Therefore, government insists that the pace of transformation, and implementation of B-BBEE policy in the private sector, including the tourism sector, is slow and needs addressing. The tourism sector, one of the largest and fastest growing industries in the world, was identified as a priority sector for economic development and implementation of B-BBEE policy in South Africa. In line with global conventions, the Amended Tourism B-BBEE code (2013) groups’ components of the tourism value chain into three main sub-sectors. These sub-sectors are firstly Accommodation, then Hospitality and Related Services; and thirdly, Travel and Related Services. Show less

Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (B-BBEE) policy in South Africa aims to accelerate the inclusion of black people into the economy through company ownership, human resources, and enterprise and community development. Statistics South Africa (Stats SA, 2012) indicate that 91 per cent of South Africa’s 52 million people Show more

This study investigates monetary policy shocks and industrial production in BRICS countries. The study is presented in four separate but related essays. The first (chapter three) employs a Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive model (𝑃−𝑆𝑉𝐴𝑅) to investigate how monetary policy shocks affect industrial output in BRICS countries using monthly data for the period 1994:1 to 2013:12. A nine variable 𝑃−𝑆𝑉𝐴𝑅 with short-run restrictions among the variables is constructed for the analysis. The study finds that variations in the exchange rate have the largest impact on industrial output in the BRICS countries. It is also observed that inflation rates significantly increase industrial output, peaking after about 11 months. This suggests that monetary authorities should be cautious when formulating policies aimed at reducing the inflation rate because of the spill over effect on industrial output. Further analysis reveals that interest rates have a marginal effect on exchange rates, while money supply makes a relatively large contribution to exchange rate fluctuations. Again, it is observed that changes in money supply exert a very large impact on variations in the rate of inflation. Thus, money supply plays an important role in curbing inflation. The study also analyses variations in interest rates, money supply and inflation and recommends that monetary authorities in the BRICS countries adjust interest rates, and not money supply, in response to inflation expectations. The second essay (chapter four) models exchange rate behaviour in the BRICS countries. This study examines global shocks and variations in the BRICS countries local currency/United States dollar exchange rate using the symmetric Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) and Asymmetric Power Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (APARCH) models to determine the relationship between the two. The GARCH, EGARCH and APARCH are employed under normal (Normal Gaussian) and nonnormal (Student‘s t and Generalized Error) distributions. Using monthly exchange rate data covering the period 1994:01–2013:12, the study finds that exchange rates in Brazil, Russia and India can well be modelled by the symmetric GARCH (1,1) model while in China, the three models perform well. In South Africa, the results of the three models also perform well but the EGARCH (1,1) model is found to be the best. Further analyses of the models reveal that the Student‘s t distribution produces better fit for estimating exchange rate variations and global shocks in BRICS countries compared to the Normal Gaussian and GED values under the nonnormal distributions. Overall, the study recommends that the BRICS countries should consider the impact of oil prices and global interest rates when formulating and implementing policies that impact on exchange rates. The third essay (chapter five) examines whether the five BRICS countries share similar business cycles and determines the probability of any of the countries moving from a contractionary regime to an expansionary regime. The study further examines the extent to which changes in monetary policy affect industrial output in expansions relative to contractions. Employing the Peersman and Smets (2001) Markov-Switching Model (MSM) and monthly data from 1994:01 – 2013:12, the study reveals that the five BRICS countries have similar business cycles. The results further demonstrate that the BRICS countries‘ business cycles are characterized by two distinct growth rate phases: a contractionary regime and an expansionary regime. It is observed that area-wide monetary policy has significantly large effects on industrial output in recessions as well as in booms. It is also established that there is a high probability of moving from state 1 (recession) to state 2 (expansion) and that on average, the probabilities of staying in state 2 (expansion) are high for each of the five countries. It is, therefore, recommended that the BRICS countries should sustain uniform policy consistency (monetary policy), especially as they formulate and implement economic policies to stimulate industrial output. The fourth essay (chapter six) investigates the long run and short run dynamics between industrial production and the factors affecting production in the emerging market economies of BRICS countries. Using the Chudik and Pesaran (2013) P-ARDL model and monthly data from 1994:01 – 2013:12, the study finds evidence of a cointegrating relationship between industrial production and selected variables. It is further observed that capital, labour, per capita income and exports have a positive long run impact on industrial production in the BRICS countries. However, a currency appreciation (an increase in the exchange rate) has a negative impact on industrial production. In the short run, it is found that imports, exports, exchange rates, labour, capital and per capita income significantly affect industrial production. The policy implication stemming from the analysis is that a sound economic policy is important for output production and industrialization in BRICS countries while poor policy will result in a nexus of constraintsfrom which escape may be difficult (or impossible). The industrial sector, therefore, should also be listed as a sector that can actualize the diversification process and boost economic performance in the EMEs. There should also be policy consistence in curtailing the declining trend of industrial production. Show less

This study investigates monetary policy shocks and industrial production in BRICS countries. The study is presented in four separate but related essays. The first (chapter three) employs a Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive model (𝑃−𝑆𝑉𝐴𝑅) to investigate how monetary policy shocks affect industrial output Show more